D. Zagreb – AC Milan : Preview & Prediction
It’s crunch time in UEFA Champions League (UCL) Group E, with all four teams separated by just three points with two games remaining. Dinamo Zagreb sit at the bottom of the table, having gone winless in their last three UCL matches since their victory over Chelsea on matchday one. However, the Croatian side are unbeaten at home in this season’s competition (G3, E2), perhaps giving some hope that they can put themselves in contention for a first knockout stage appearance since the tournament was restructured.
The last team to beat Ante Čačić’s side at home in the UCL was Manchester City in 2019, so the Croatian champions are clearly not an easy nut to crack. If they want that record to continue, they will have to fight back and overcome their miserable head-to-head record against AC Milan, having lost all five previous meetings against the Rossoneri, conceding 13 goals in the process. Their stellar domestic performance could be an excellent source of motivation to finally get that first win against the Italian giants, as it has been 19 games since Dinamo were last beaten in the HNL, winning 15 of their 18 appearances since then (E3).
Milan are level on four points with the home side after back-to-back defeats to Chelsea left their campaign hanging by a thread. Conceding five goals without being able to score a single one during those two matches does not seem to have impacted the team’s morale much, as the Italian champions responded with back-to-back Serie A (SA) victories, with the latest being an emphatic 4-1 win over Monza. Coach Stefano Pioli managed to rest Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud and Sandro Tonali from the start, so those key players could arrive fresh and will try to help his team advance to the knockout stage for the first time since 2013/14.
Although since returning to the UCL last season, the Rossoneri have struggled to play away from the San Siro, winning just one of their last five away games in this competition (E1, P3). These away problems are limited to the continental stage, as Milan are enjoying excellent form on rival soil domestically, last losing away in SA in November 2021 (G12, E5 since). Therefore, if the seven-time European champions want to improve their chances of qualifying, transferring that performance to the UEFA competition could be important.
Players to watch: Dinamo striker Bruno Petković has contributed directly to eight goals in his last eight appearances (five goals, three assists), with all five goals he scored in that period being registered after the break. Looking to take the spotlight away from him will be Milan striker Rafael Leão, who has scored five times this season, with the last three serving as his team’s final goal in their respective outings.
Key stat: Milan have conceded three times without managing to score in the period between the 16th and 30th minute in this season’s UCL group stage – only Sporting CP have conceded more goals during that period (four).
D. Zagreb – AC Milan : Betting Tips
AC Milan – Win Odds: 1.75
