Freiburg – RB Leipzig : Preview & Prediction
Revenge may be on the mind of Christian Streich and his Freiburg side this week after losing to RB Leipzig in last season’s DFB Pokal final. They will meet once again, but this time in the semifinals, and with only two points separating these two teams in the Bundesliga, this clash could be as tense and tight as their race for the final Bundesliga Champions League qualifying spot, especially after both teams earned nine of the last 12 available points.
It has been over three hours of play since Freiburg last conceded goals, though they are likely to see that streak end here if their DFB-Pokal form is any indicator, as both sides have scored in eight of the team’s last nine games in this competition. In fact, five of those matches required extra time or penalties to find a winner, suggesting that the spectators at the Europa-Park Stadion could be in for a long night.
Last season’s cup success was Leipzig’s first major trophy, and boosted by the potential psychological advantage that that can confer, the Red Bulls have the opportunity to shake up Freiburg ahead of a crucial day to finish in the top four in the Bundesliga over the coming weekend. The omens are strong for such an outcome considering the only blemish on Leipzig’s DFB-Pokal record in the last 16 matches was against 2021 winners Dortmund (G15, P1).
Marco Rose’s men have also lost just one of their last 15 away cup clashes and, in fact, conceded no goals in six of their last eight DFB-Pokal away wins. The Red Bulls, therefore, enter this clash as favorites, although with a run of four defeats in their last five away games in all competitions, and a paltry 36% win rate as Bundesliga favorites when playing away from home prior to this match (G5, E4, P5) , it may serve to temper expectations.
Players to watch: Freiburg’s talented winger Ritsu Dōan has made scoring contributions in his last two appearances (G1, A1), but has lost all three personal meetings with Leipzig. Looking to extend that head-to-head losing streak will be Leipzig’s Christopher Nkunku, and it’s worth noting that the Frenchman scored his first goal since returning from injury at the weekend. He also scored in last year’s cup final.
Key stat: Freiburg have won just one top-flight match when they started as underdogs this season (G1, E3, P6).
Freiburg – RB Leipzig : Betting Tips
BTS/YES Odds: 2.25
