The draw has been made for the Champions League knockout phase. In fact, it was made twice. But after the farcical initial draw, UEFA finally got its act together and did it properly. That’s caused a lot of consternation among some clubs: Imagine How Real Madrid fans felt after initially drawing Benfica, then being told they would have to face Paris Saint Germain.
Nonetheless, the draw is now set in stone, and it’s time to make some predictions on who will progress from each tie:
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
A matchup between two teams that are both considered to be underperforming. United fans will be hoping that Ralf Rangnick will have had the time to turn the club’s fortunes around, whereas Atletico fans will want more from Diego Simeone’s men. A tough one to call, but United’s room for improvement has a higher ceiling than Atletico’s.
Verdict: Manchester United
Odds to qualify: 4/5
Benfica vs Ajax
With a perfect record in the Group Stage, a lot of punters will be backing Ajax to go deep in the competition. But this tie with Benfica is trickier than it looks. Odds of 1/3 are not that appealing for Ajax to make the quarters, but the Dutch side should advance.
Verdict: Ajax
Odds to qualify: 1/3
Chelsea vs Lille
Probably the easiest tie to call in the Last 16. The European champions will win and march on to the quarter-finals. Simple.
Verdict: Chelsea
Odds to qualify: 4/11
PSG vs Real Madrid
The most eye-catching tie of the Last 16 round sees the La Liga leaders take on the Ligue 1 leader, with all the focus going on the coveted Kylian Mbappé, a player who seems destined for a transfer to Madrid. The consensus says that PSG wins, but we are going against that by backing Carlo Ancelotti’s well-organised Madrid side.
Verdict: Real Madrid
Odds to qualify: 6/5
Sporting Lisbon vs Manchester City
Whisper it, but this one looks like a potential banana skin for Pep Guardiola’s men. Sporting are a very good side, who managed to qualify for the Last 16 at the expense of Borussia Dortmund. They are also unbeaten in the Primeira Liga at the time of writing and boast a decent defence. City should qualify, but 1/6 feels ridiculously short price.
Verdict: Manchester City
Odds to qualify: 1/6
FC Salzburg vs Bayern Munich
An intriguing tie here as the two best teams in Germany and Austria collide. You’d have to fancy Bayern to qualify, although the Bavarians’ squad depth is perhaps not as good as some people think.
Verdict: Bayern Munich
Odds to qualify: 41/100
Inter Milan vs Liverpool
Inter are running into a team considered among the Champions League favourites, so it’s a tall order for the nerazzurri. Liverpool should win, and they will win. But once again, the odds are a little short for our liking.
Verdict: Liverpool
Odds to qualify: 2/7
Villarreal vs Juventus
Odds of 7/4 for Villarreal to qualify ahead of a poor Juventus side are, quite frankly, a steal. Unai Emery is a master and negotiating these two-legged ties, and he will see the Yellow Submarine into the quarters.
Verdict: Villarreal
Odds to qualify: 7/4
Betting Strategy
If you back the predictions, the easiest route to go down is putting all eight selections into an eight-fold accumulator, which has odds of 40/1. However, there are other betting options, including a Goliath, which has 247 legs (singles, doubles, trebles, etc.). This gives protection if there are one or more losing legs. But some bettors might want to remove the Man City leg (1/6 is not going to beef up your returns very much), and perhaps Liverpool (2/7 is also short), and that opens up the option of using a Heinz or Super Heinz betting strategy. If we were to remove Man City, for example, then a 10p Super Heinz would cost £12.70 to cover the 127 legs, and pay £101.98 at the current odds.
Obviously, going down the route of Super Heinz and other multi-leg betting options can have drawbacks, but they are worth investigating, particularly as there are always going to be upsets. As we mentioned earlier, some of those ties are much trickier than they look on paper. It’s almost inevitable that some of our selections won’t come in, so using betting tactics to cover that eventuality is always advisable
