Freiburg – Mainz : Preview & Prediction
Freiburg’s 1-0 loss to Cologne on the final matchday leaves the race for European places tighter than ever, with just four points separating fourth from 10th-placed at the start of the day. Despite that drop, Freiburg remain fifth and have their best points tally at this point in a top-flight campaign since 2010/11, in which they finished ninth.
Freiburg manager Christian Streich hasn’t always figured out Mainz since he took over the club in 2011 (G5, D4, L10). Streich have won just two of the last eight meetings against each other, but can at least take confidence from their current three-match unbeaten run at home this season (G2, D1), which includes a win against tricky Leverkusen.
While Mainz’s performance in the Bundesliga has been inconsistent since November 2021 (G4, D2, P5), the win against Hoffenheim in their last appearance put them very close to the European places. One cause for concern with these ups and downs is the fact that all the wins were recorded at home and with a clean sheet, while all five defeats were recorded in their last five away games.
As a result, Mainz ranks as the second-worst away team in the league and those five consecutive away defeats meant their worst such losing streak since a run of seven in 2019, a performance that could hurt their chances of a first ranked among the top six classified since the 2015/16 season. Scoring first could significantly increase their chances in this game, with their two wins away from home this Bundesliga campaign coming after opening the scoring, while seven of their eight defeats saw them concede the opener.
Players to watch: Christian Günter has not missed any of the last 100 Bundesliga games for Freiburg – the current longest streak of consecutive appearances in the division. He only recorded six cards (yellow or red) during that span. As for Mainz, Jae-Sung Lee scored his fourth goal this league season and his first coming off the bench on the final matchday.
Highlight: 71% of Freiburg’s games this league season have seen the result at half-time carry through to the end of the game.
Freiburg – Mainz : Betting Tips
Freiburg – Win Odds: 2.25
