Osasuna – Real Madrid : Preview & Prediction
Osasuna has hit a slump in LaLiga Santander (LL), taking only three points from the last 12 in play (E3, P1), a negative trend that needs to be corrected immediately to maintain their chances of qualifying for a European competition for the first time since 2005-06. Their passage to the semifinals of the Copa del Rey (first leg vs Athletic Club, March 1) shows that this red-and-red team is capable of raising their level in matches against top-level opponents, something they will certainly need to do when they host Real Madrid this Saturday.
More than 12 years without beating Los Blancos at home: Osasuna has not beaten the reigning LL champion and potential Copa del Rey final opponent at El Sadar since January 2011 (E3, P5). In five of the last six home duels against Real Madrid, Osasuna has conceded two or more goals. Add to that the fact that the red-and-reds have suffered all four of their home league games this season against teams currently in the top four or bottom three, and they are also the only club without a home draw in LL 2022-23 (G6, P4), which makes Madrid’s status as favorites even clearer.
Real Madrid overwhelmed bottom side Elche on Wednesday (RM 4-0 Elche), in a match in which Karim Benzema overtook Raúl as the second-highest scorer in the history of Los Blancos in LL, increasing his tally to 230 goals with a penalty double. The French striker is still a long way off Cristiano Ronaldo’s 311 goals, but if he continues to be sharp in front of goal, he may help Madrid reduce its eight-point deficit to solid leaders Barça.
Los Blancos have alternated wins and losses on their recent league trips (G3, P3), and the last of those was the first in which they failed to score this season (Mallorca 1-0 RM). It is highly unlikely that Carlo Ancelotti’s side will go scoreless again this Saturday, having previously scored nine goals in two games in Morocco prior to the 4-0 win over Elche to claim their fifth Club World Cup.
Players to watch: Ante Budimir’s goal levelled the score 1-1 for Osasuna in Real Madrid’s visit to El Sadar in LL 2021-22 (OSA 1-3 RM), but each of his next three goals have opened the scoring between the 40th and 70th minutes. His compatriot Luka Modrić closed out the scoring against Elche on Wednesday, and his last eight appearances on target for Madrid have come in games with more than 2.5 goals.
Key stat: Madrid have lost just one of their last 28 LL matches played on a Saturday (G24, E3, P1).
Osasuna – Real Madrid : Betting Tips
Osasuna – Win Odds: 4.25
